Greater Nashville Housing Market: Strong Job Growth and Rising Prices Set the Stage for 2025

The housing market this year has experienced its shares of ups and downs. Mortgage rates, a major driver of market trends, reached multi-decade highs earlier in the year, pricing many buyers out of the market and disrupting typical seasonality trends nationwide.

However, as the year progressed, rates began to decline, driven by anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut, which ultimately arrived in the Fall. This shift brought a noticeable uptick in sales activity.

In Greater Nashville, the total number of home sales have shown slight declines for the year while prices for both single-family homes and condos continued to rise. Pending home sales—a leading indicator of future market activity—also saw steady increases in the region, signaling healthy demand despite higher borrowing costs.

As we look ahead to the new year, several key indicators can provide insight into what’s to come.

Homeowner Mortgage Rates and Inventory

A significant factor influencing housing supply is the share of homeowners locked into low mortgage rates. Areas with fewer homeowners holding sub-6% rates are likely to see more properties come to market, boosting inventory and creating opportunities for buyers. In the Greater Nashville MSA, 75.7% of mortgage originations between 2019 and 2023 carry rates below 6%, a figure that could limit inventory growth in the short term.

Job Growth and Housing Demand

Job growth fuels economic stability and income gains, both critical for housing affordability. Nashville’s 11.6% job growth from 2019 to 2023 far outpaced the national average of 5%, positioning the region as a magnet for new residents. This economic strength bolsters homeownership demand and supports a thriving housing market.

Price Appreciation

Home price appreciation reflects strong demand, attracts investment, and builds wealth for homeowners while supporting community development. From Q3 2019 to Q3 2024, home prices in the Greater Nashville area grew by 67.9%, surpassing the national average of 56.2%. This robust growth underscores the market’s resilience and potential for future gains.

While predicting the future of the housing market is never an exact science, Greater Nashville’s strong job market, steady price growth, and a relatively high share of homeowners with low mortgage rates suggest that the coming year will offer opportunities for both buyers and sellers. 

See below for data on the Nashville MSA provided by the National Association of REALTORS®